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The 'patient' Fed has been lamenting the"lack of inflation" for far too long. It is about to get its wish.

很長時間以來,美聯儲一直說美國的通貨膨脹率不夠,現在,美聯儲終于可以實現自己的愿望了。

American food merchants are struggling toimport fruits and vegetables from Mexico as wait times at port of entries alongthe Mexico–US border have surged because of a shift in Customs and BorderProtection (CBP) personnel away from the port of entries to remote regions ofthe border to fight illegal crossings. As a result, shipments of food havedramatically declined in recent weeks, and the result is an imminent spike inimported food prices in the coming months that could put a sizeable dent inconsumer wallets.

美國食品商正在努力從墨西哥進口水果和蔬菜,墨西哥-美國邊境口岸的通關等待時間激增,原因是海關和邊境保護人員在邊境偏遠地區打擊非法入境。因此,近幾周來,食品出關量大幅下降,其結果就是未來幾個月,進口食品的價格將飆升,這可能使得消費者的錢包大幅縮水。

Fruit and vegetable importers thatwholesale to grocery stores throughout the US, could inflate prices by at least20% to 40% if the wait times continue, with avocado prices already soaring (see"Mexican Avocado Prices Explode By Most In A Decade After Trump BorderThreat").

通過進口商批發到美國各地零售店的水果和蔬菜,如果通關等待時間繼續這樣下去,價格可能會上漲至少20%至40%,而鱷梨的價格已經飆升(詳情參考“在特朗普威脅關閉邊界后,墨西哥鱷梨價格十年內最大幅度的上漲”)。

And it's not just avocados: cucumbers,eggplants, bell peppers, squash, cherry tomatoes, watermelons, and most otherfruit and vegetables imported from the tropics would be affected.

不僅僅是鱷梨:黃瓜、茄子、甜椒、南瓜、櫻桃、番茄、西瓜,以及大多數從熱帶進口的水果和蔬菜都會受到影響。

"(The) Mexican border, it’s one of themost important crossings to the United States," said Joshua Duran, AmoreProduce sales representative.

“墨西哥邊境,是到美國最重要的過境地點之一,”農產品銷售代表杜蘭說。

About 43% of all US fruit and vegetablesoriginate from Mexico. In the last several decades, Mexico has become the toptrading partner with the US.

美國約43%的水果和蔬菜來自墨西哥。在過去的幾十年里,墨西哥已經成為美國最大的貿易伙伴。



"We couldn’t get ithere and we couldn’t send it to the customers in the north," Duran said.

杜蘭說:“我們不能在這里買這些(不新鮮的)東西,也不能把它們送到北方的顧客手中。”

Marabella Produce owner Alejandro Knightsuggested that wait time increases have impacted his cold-storage levels in thelast month. Knight said his warehouse is always at full capacity, but now, thefloors are covered with empty pallets. Most of the produce Knight receives fromMexico is spoiled, thanks to wait time increases, warehouse workers have toimmediately throw out the produce once it arrives.

馬拉貝拉的農產品經銷商亞歷德羅.奈特認為,通關等待時間的增加已經影響到了他上個月的冷藏庫存量。奈特說他的倉庫一直都是滿負荷在運轉,但現在倉庫的地板上是空的,大部分從墨西哥運過來的農產品都是壞的,由于通關等待時間的增加,倉庫工作人員在農產品運過來之后就得立即把它們扔掉。

"We cannot deliver a fresh productanymore if we have to wait for each load to cross, five to six days, it'simpossible to work like this," Knight warned.

奈特警告說:“如果每批貨物通關我們都必須等待五到六天,我們就沒法再提供新鮮的農產品了,這樣沒法繼續下去的。”

Knight said Mexican farmers are now"afraid" to export fruits and vegetables to the US because ofextended wait times.

奈特說,由于通關等待時間的延長,墨西哥農民現在“害怕”向美國出口水果和蔬菜。

Salavador Contreras, an economist at theUniversity of Texas Rio Grande Valley, said if wait times increase, it couldinflate produce for everyday American consumers.

德克薩斯大學格蘭德谷分校的經濟學家薩拉瓦多·孔特雷拉斯表示,如果通關的等待時間延長,可能會使美國日常消費者購買到的農產品價格上漲。

"It's going to be felt at the grocerystores when we start paying more for limes and our avocados at the grocerystore," Contreras said.

孔特雷拉斯說:“當我們開始在零售店為酸橙和鱷梨支付更多的費用時,人們會在零售店感受到這種感覺。”

If the wait times persist at the border, inthe coming months Americans will be shocked by soaring prices in the producesection of their local grocery stores, a move that could reverse consumersentiment right before an important election year. But at least the Fed will bedelighted: it will have achieved some of that "symmetric" inflationovershoot it has been seeking for so long... and all thanks to Trump.

如果邊境地區通關的等待時間繼續這樣下去,在接下來的幾個月時間里,當地零售店部分農產品的價格飆升將會使美國人震驚,這可能會在一個重要的選舉年前扭轉消費者們的情緒。但至少美聯儲會感到高興:它將實現它長期以來一直想要的通貨膨脹…這多虧了特朗普。