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India slips further behind China during first fiveyears of Modi

莫迪執政的頭五年,印度進一步落后于中國



正文:
Prime Minister Narendra Modimade a rare national address on live television last month to boast that Indiahad destroyed a satellite in low orbit, establishing itself as a “space power”alongside the US, Russia and China.

印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪上月罕見地在電視直播中發表全國講話,吹噓印度摧毀了一顆低軌道衛星,將自己打造為與美國、俄羅斯和中國并舉的“太空強國”。

For a leader who lambasted hispredecessor for failing to counter long-term geopolitical foe China, themissile test was a moment of “utmost pride.” Yet China conducted a similar testmore than a decade ago in 2007, prompting critics to note that India’s show ofstrength was merely highlighting the wide strategic gap between the world’s twomost populous countries.

對于一位抨擊前任未能對抗長期地緣政治對手中國的領導人來說,此次導彈試驗是一個“無比自豪”的時刻。然而,中國在10多年前的2007年進行了一次類似的測試,這促使批評人士指出,印度的實力展示只是突顯了世界上人口最多的兩個國家之間的巨大戰略差距。



Whether Modi returns to poweror not, India’s next government will still be saddled with aging equipment likeSoviet-era MiG warplanes, a bureaucracy that hinders military upgrades and anundersized diplomatic corps. To fend off China, it’s likely to continueshifting toward the U.S. and other like-minded countries in Asia while seekingto protect its periphery.

不管莫迪是否重新掌權,印度下一屆政府仍將受困于老化的裝備(比如蘇聯時期的米格戰機)、阻礙軍事升級的官僚作風、以及規模過小的外交團隊。為了抵御中國,印度可能會繼續轉向美國和亞洲其他志同道合的國家,同時尋求保護其周邊地區。

“A major long-run test for India is to ensure that China does not turnIndia’s own geography against it by encircling it with a string of militarybases in the Indian Ocean,” said Rory Medcalf, who heads the National SecurityCollege at the Australian National University. “Delhi will play a long game. AsIndia’s economy grows, this will still eventually translate into the world’sthird-largest defense budget.”

澳大利亞國立大學國家安全學院院長羅里•梅德卡夫表示:“對印度來說,一個重大的長期考驗是,確保中國不會在印度洋上建立一系列軍事基地,從而使印度的地理環境不利于印度。德里將面臨一場持久戰。隨著印度經濟的增長,印度最終將獲得世界第三大國防預算。”

India’s economy has expandedto $2.6 trillion, eclipsing France, while its largest trading partner is China.

印度的經濟規模已經擴大到2.6萬億美元,超過了法國,而印度最大的貿易伙伴是中國。

Under Modi, the country hasskillfully handled its relationship with China, increased defense spending andgranted the armed forces greater autonomy, said G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, an Indianlawmaker and spokesman for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

印度國會議員、執政黨印度人民黨發言人拉奧表示,在莫迪的領導下,印度巧妙處理了與中國的關系,增加了國防開支,賦予軍隊更大的自治權。

"Admittedly, China has amuch larger economy and defense budget in line with its own needs andplans," Rao said. "India is not in any arms race with any country andhas a defense budget that is adequate as per its needs. Streamlining the armedforces and reforms has been an ongoing process."

拉奧說:“不可否認,中國的經濟和國防預算要大得多,符合中國的需要和計劃。但印度沒有和任何國家進行任何軍備競賽,印度的國防預算也符合印度的需要。精簡軍隊和改革是一個持續的過程。”

Still, India continues to lagChina on every geopolitical metric, according to the Lowy Institute’s Asiapower index, which ranks countries according to economic resources, militarycapabilities and diplomatic influence.

不過,洛伊研究所的亞洲實力指數顯示,印度在地緣政治指標上仍落后于中國。該指數根據經濟資源、軍事實力和外交影響力對各國進行排名。

Modi’s injection of personalenthusiasm into Indian foreign policy hasn’t led to more resources at theseverely short-staffed Ministry of External Affairs, said Happymon Jacob,associate professor at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School ofInternational Studies. India only has roughly 940 diplomats compared to China’sestimated 7,500.

新德里尼赫魯大學國際關系學院副教授雅各布表示,莫迪將個人熱情注入印度外交政策,但并沒有給嚴重人手短缺的印度外交部帶來更多資源。印度只有大約940名外交官,而中國估計有7500名。

That lopsided situation isechoed in the armed forces. Xi has overseen China’s most sweeping militaryreforms since the 1950s, cutting back non-combat personnel and modernizing itsmilitary technology with space and cyber operations. Meanwhile, India maintainsa sprawling 1.4-million strong army and spends the bulk of its defense money onsalaries and pensions, rather than new equipment.

這種不平衡的局面在武裝部隊中得到了反映。中國親自監督中國自1950年代以來最全面的軍事改革,減少非戰斗人員,并推進空間和網絡軍事技術的現代化。與此同時,印度擁有龐大的140萬軍隊,國防開支的大部分用于支付工資和養老金,而不是采購新裝備。

“The three arms of the Indian military continue to believe they’ll fight awar separately,” Jacob said.

雅各布表示:“印度軍方的三支部隊仍然認為他們將獨立作戰。”

Even Modi’s announcement ofthe anti-satellite missile test will be mostly useless against China, accordingto Vipin Narang, an MIT associate political science professor.

麻省理工學院政治學副教授維平•納朗表示,即使莫迪宣布進行反衛星導彈試驗,對中國也基本上毫無用處。

“Not only does China have more satellites that India would likely have tokill, but China may have an advantage in killing Indian satellites,” Narangsaid.

納朗表示:“中國不但擁有更多的印度必須擊毀的衛星,而且在擊殺印度衛星方面可能具有優勢。”



“Competition is everywhere, including between India and China, but the keypoint here is the essence of the competition,” said Wang Peng, an associateresearch fellow of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at the RenminUniversity of China. “India and China have the potential for benigncompetition.”

“競爭無處不在,包括中印之間,但這里的關鍵是競爭的本質,”中國人民大學重陽金融研究所副研究員王鵬表示。“印度和中國具有良性競爭的潛力。”

Still, China’s infrastructureinvestments are shifting the long-term strategic picture. Beijing has pouredmore than $60 billion in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects, as wellas in ports from Myanmar to Sri Lanka. India’s competing infrastructureinvestments have been "lackluster," according to a recent HenryJackson Society report on infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific.

不過,中國的基礎設施投資正在改變長期戰略格局。北京向中巴經濟走廊項目以及緬甸、斯里蘭卡的港口投入了600多億美元。據亨利·杰克遜協會最近一份關于印-太地區基礎設施的報告,印度與之競爭的基礎設施投資一直“缺乏起色”。

Beijing has also kept Indiaout of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which controls the export of nuclearmaterials, and recently blocked Indian and Western efforts at the UnitedNations to list as a designated terrorist the leader of a group that claimedresponsibility for a suicide bombing that killed 40 Indian paramilitaries.

北京還阻止印度加入核供應國集團、控制核材料的出口,最近還阻止印度和西方在聯合國恐怖分子列表上加入一個指定的恐怖組織的首腦,該首腦聲稱對造成印度準軍事部隊40人死亡的自殺式炸彈襲擊負責。

“In some ways, India is better off strategically than it was five years back,”said Alyssa Ayres, a former U.S. diplomat and senior fellow for South Asia atthe Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “But you could, of course, alsoargue that India is falling further behind China instead of slowly closing thegap.”

前美國外交官、紐約外交關系委員會南亞事務高級研究員阿麗莎·艾爾斯表示:“從某些方面來說,印度的戰略狀況比五年前要好。當然,你也可以辯稱,印度正進一步落后于中國,而不是緩慢縮小差距。”