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India Slips Further Behind China During First Five Years of Modi

莫迪執政的頭五年,印度反而更落后中國了

-Beijing’s reforms, economy have fueled inroads in South Asia
- ‘It’s impossible to keep pace’ with Beijing: former official

——北京的改革和經濟推動了南亞的發展
——印度前官員:要跟上北京的步伐是不可能的

新聞:



Modi addresses the nation on March 27 about destroying a low-orbiting satellite. Photographer: Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images

(莫迪3月27日就摧毀一顆低軌道衛星發表全國講話。攝影師:Narinder Nanu/法新社,蓋蒂圖片社)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a rare national address on live television last month to boast that India had destroyed a satellite in low orbit, establishing itself as a “space power” alongside the U.S., Russia and China.

上個月,印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪罕見地在電視直播中發表全國講話,夸耀印度摧毀了一顆低軌道衛星,確立了自己與美國、俄羅斯和中國并舉的“太空強國”地位。



India Falling Behind
China continued to pull ahead of India in defense spending since Modi took office

落后的印度
莫迪上任以來,中國的國防開支繼續領先印度



Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Note: Currency is constant (2016) USD

資料來源:斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所
注:以2016年美元匯率計算

“It’s impossible to keep pace with China,” said Vishnu Prakash, a former Indian ambassador to South Korea and consul general in Shanghai. “We cannot get into checkbook diplomacy with China. We don’t have that kind of economic muscle.”

“要跟上北京的步伐是不可能的”,印度前駐韓國大使、駐上海總領事毗瑟奴•普拉卡什說。“我們無法與中國展開支票外交。我們沒有那種經濟實力。”

Whether Modi returns to power or not, India’s next government will still be saddled with aging equipment like Soviet-era MiG warplanes, a bureaucracy that hinders military upgrades and an undersized diplomatic corps. To fend off China, it’s likely to continue shifting toward the U.S. and other like-minded countries in Asia while seeking to protect its periphery.

不管莫迪是否重新掌權,印度的下一屆政府仍將背負著老化的裝備,比如蘇聯時期的米格戰機、阻礙軍事升級的官僚作風,以及規模過小的外交團隊。為了抵御中國,印度可能會繼續轉向美國和亞洲其他志同道合的國家,同時尋求保護其周邊地區。

“A major long-run test for India is to ensure that China does not turn India’s own geography against it by encircling it with a string of military bases in the Indian Ocean,” said Rory Medcalf, who heads the National Security College at the Australian National University. “Delhi will play a long game. As India’s economy grows, this will still eventually translate into the world’s third-largest defense budget.”

澳大利亞國立大學國家安全學院院長羅里•梅德卡夫表示:“對印度來說,一個重大的長期考驗是:確保中國不會在印度洋上建立一系列軍事基地,從而使印度的地理環境不利于印度。德里將打一場持久戰。隨著印度經濟的增長,這最終將轉化為世界第三大國防預算。”

‘Falling Further’

“越來越落后”



Asia's Great Power Gap
China scores higher than India on a range of important geopolitical metrics

亞洲的強國差距
在一系列重要的地緣政治指標上,中國得分高于印度



Source: Lowy Institute Asia Power Index
Note: Resilience gauges reliance on energy imports and other factors, while future trends measures demographics, growth forecasts, etc.

資料來源:羅伊研究所“亞洲實力指數”
注:“恢復力”衡量的是對能源進口和其他因素的依賴程度,而“前景”指數衡量的是人口結構、增長預測等等。

Modi’s injection of personal enthusiasm into Indian foreign policy hasn’t led to more resources at the severely short-staffed Ministry of External Affairs, said Happymon Jacob, associate professor at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies. India only has roughly 940 diplomats compared to China’s estimated 7,500.

新德里尼赫魯大學國際關系學院副教授雅各布稱,莫迪將個人熱情注入印度外交政策,并沒有給嚴重人手短缺的印度外交部帶來更多資源。印度只有大約940名外交官,而中國估計有7500名。

That lopsided situation is echoed in the armed forces. Xi has overseen China’s most sweeping military reforms since the 1950s, cutting back non-combat personnel and modernizing its military technology with space and cyber operations. Meanwhile, India maintains a sprawling 1.4-million strong army and spends the bulk of its defense money on salaries and pensions, rather than new equipment.

這種不平衡的局面也在軍隊中得到了反映。中國已經監督了中國自上世紀50年代以來最全面的軍事改革,裁剪非戰斗人員,通過太空和網絡行動使其軍事技術現代化。與此同時,印度擁有龐大的140萬軍隊,國防開支的大部分卻用于工資和養老金,而不是新裝備。

“The three arms of the Indian military continue to believe they’ll fight a war separately,” Jacob said.

雅各布說:“印度軍方的三大軍種仍然認為他們將各自為戰。”

Diplomatic Disadvantage
Despite a population of 1.3 billion, India has barely more diplomats than Singapore

外交劣勢
盡管印度有13億人口,但其外交官人數僅略多于新加坡



Source: Foreign ministries of India, Australia, Japan, U.K., U.S., and a New Delhi Institute of Chinese Studies working paper on Indian and Chinese foreign services by former Indian diplomat Kishan Rana
Note: Some countries do not officially declare size of foreign service

資料來源:印度、澳大利亞、日本、英國、美國外交部,以及印度前外交官基山•拉納在新德里中國問題研究所撰寫的關于印度和中國外交服務的工作論文
注:部分國家未正式公布外交隊伍規模



“China sees real risk in India’s strengthening security ties with a formidable array of Indo-Pacific partners including America, Japan, Australia, Indonesia, France and Vietnam,” ANU’s Medcalf said. “The U.S. and others do not need India as a formal ally or as a full rival with China. They simply need India to be itself -- a capable and growing power in the Indian Ocean, whose navy can complicate life for China and whose diplomacy proves every day that China does not speak for Asia.”

“中國認為印度加強與包括美國、日本、澳洲、印尼、法國和越南在內的印度-太平洋伙伴的安全關系存在真正的風險,” 澳大利亞國立大學的梅德卡夫稱。他說:“美國和其他國家不需要印度成為美國的正式盟友,也不需要印度成為中國的完全競爭對手。他們只是需要印度做好自己——一個在印度洋上有能力且不斷發展的大國,其海軍能讓中國的生活變得復雜,并且其外交政策每天都在證明:中國并不代表亞洲。”



(From China's intrusions to Pakistan's ambushes- UPA Government has been absolutely lax in securing Indian borders. When will Centre wake up?)

(莫迪當選前的推文:從中國的入侵到巴基斯坦的伏擊——統一進步聯盟政府(國大黨政府)在保護印度邊境方面絕對松懈。政府何時覺醒?)



Beijing has also kept India out of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which controls the export of nuclear materials, and recently blocked Indian and Western efforts at the United Nations to list as a designated terrorist the leader of a group that claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing that killed 40 Indian paramilitaries.

北京還將印度排除在核供應國集團之外——該組織控制著核材料的出口,最近還阻止了印度和西方國家在聯合國將一個宣稱對導致40名印度準軍事部隊成員死亡的自殺性爆炸事件負責的組織頭目列為指定恐怖分子的努力。

“In some ways, India is better off strategically than it was five years back,” said Alyssa Ayres, a former U.S. diplomat and senior fellow for South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “But you could, of course, also argue that India is falling further behind China instead of slowly closing the gap.”

前美國外交官、紐約外交關系委員會南亞事務高級研究員阿麗莎•艾爾斯說:“從某些方面來說,印度的戰略狀況比五年前要好。當然,你也能辯稱,印度正在進一步落后于中國,而不是在緩慢縮小差距。”