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'People Don't Want To Be StupidTwice': Foreign Diplomats Betting On Trump Win In 2020


Following Donald Trump's upset victory in the 2016 US election,foreign diplomats who have spent over two years adjusting to Trumpiandiplomacy are now coming to grips with the following;


Trump's 2016 win wasnot a fluke, he has a good chance of winning again, and there's no'just riding it out' anymore.


"In 2016, nobody believed he was going tobe elected. People don’t want to be stupid twice," former FrenchAmbassador to the US,Gerard Araud, told Politico.


"The way it looks to people is it’s going to be anotherfour years," one Arab diplomat said, adding. "If he gets reelected, he’s bound by nothing, except Congress. AndI don’t know how that’s going to play out."


Moreover, candidateslike Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have spoken of similar 'fair'trade deals as Trump.
Politico's conclusion;" no foreign government should bank on getting a better shakepost-Trump."

此外,候選人如BernieSanders與Elizabeth Warren都曾表示,任何外國政府不應寄望于特朗普落敗后的政策變更。

"He’s not anisolated phenomenon," said one European diplomat, adding "In hiscampaign and his presidency, he’s just responding to what the American publicfeels. The frustration he expresses, the grievances he responded to in hiscampaign are very often real."


That hasn’t stopped a few countries from sending signalsthat they’drather wait and see what happens.


China, for one, appears unlikely to strike atrade deal with the U.S. until after the 2020 election. Beijinghas been increasingly reluctant to make concessions as Trump has slapped asteady stream of tariffs on the country’s exports.


Iran’s Islamist regime, meanwhile, appearsunwilling to hold new nuclear negotiations with Trump, despitethe president’s repeated imposition of sanctions that have battered thecountry's economy. -Politico


Still, Trump touts his friendship with Kim, whom he says has sent him many“beautiful” letters, and has downplayed Kim’s recentshort-range missile tests. Trump has also scaled back U.S.-South Korean jointmilitary exercises, a gift to Kim.

不過,特朗普大吹特吹其與金正恩的友誼,說金正日給他寄了許多“漂亮”的信件,同時卻貶低了朝鮮最近的短程導彈試驗,并且還縮減了對金正恩的禮物 -- 即舉行美韓聯合軍事演習。

The North Korean ruler may not get suchgenerous treatment from a Democratic president eager to distinguish himself orherself from Trump. -Politico


Brookings Institution foreign policy analyst Tom Wright notesthat aside from preparing psychologically for another Trump win, governments haven't taken concrete steps towards foreign policydirections ahead of 2020, a sign that they're still holding out fora Democratic win.

布魯金斯學會外交政策分析師Tom Wrigh指出,除了在心理上為特朗普連任做準備外,對于外交政策的發展方向,各國政府尚未采取具體措施,這意味著他們還在堅持等待著民主黨的勝利。

If Trump does winas now expected among Diplomatic ranks, allies such as France and German willhave to give some serious consideration to their military and economicpartnerships with the United States, and that if Trump wins, "futureDemocratic candidates will be more nationalistic," according toWright.

如果正與外交隊伍所預期的那樣 -- 特朗普獲勝,法國和德國等盟國將不得不認真考慮一下他們與美國的軍事經濟伙伴關系了,如果特朗普獲勝,“未來的民主黨候選人將更為民族主義”

"It’s not Trump, it’s much wider than him," a seniorEU diplomat told Politico."It’s not anymore that we are the two allies fighting together againstthreats like terrorism. The way they look at us now is mainly as a marketto conquer against Chinese interests. It has become a bilateral strugglebetween them and the Chinese for who conquers Europe or Africa."


"What I’m saying right now is, I think, shared by manypeople," said a Middle Eastern diplomat of the 2020 election, adding"It’s his to lose."