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'People Don't Want To Be StupidTwice': Foreign Diplomats Betting On Trump Win In 2020

“人們不想再蠢下去了”:外國外交官押注特朗普贏得2020選舉

Following Donald Trump's upset victory in the 2016 US election,foreign diplomats who have spent over two years adjusting to Trumpiandiplomacy are now coming to grips with the following;

特朗普在2016年的大選中意外獲勝,那些花了兩年時間來適應特朗普政策的外國外交官要開始面對以下問題了:

Trump's 2016 win wasnot a fluke, he has a good chance of winning again, and there's no'just riding it out' anymore.

特朗普在2016年的勝利并不是僥幸,再來一次他還是有很大機會,也不再會是“慘勝”了。



"In 2016, nobody believed he was going tobe elected. People don’t want to be stupid twice," former FrenchAmbassador to the US,Gerard Araud, told Politico.

“2016年的時候,沒人認為特朗普會當選,人們不會再愚蠢第二次了”,前法國駐美大使GerardAraud告訴《政治》雜志道。

"The way it looks to people is it’s going to be anotherfour years," one Arab diplomat said, adding. "If he gets reelected, he’s bound by nothing, except Congress. AndI don’t know how that’s going to play out."

一位阿拉伯外交官這樣說的:“(如果特朗普當選),對人們來說,又要忍受四年了”“如果他再次當選,除了國會以外,沒人任何人能約束他了,我也不知道他還會玩出什么花樣”



Moreover, candidateslike Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have spoken of similar 'fair'trade deals as Trump.
Politico's conclusion;" no foreign government should bank on getting a better shakepost-Trump."

此外,候選人如BernieSanders與Elizabeth Warren都曾表示,任何外國政府不應寄望于特朗普落敗后的政策變更。

"He’s not anisolated phenomenon," said one European diplomat, adding "In hiscampaign and his presidency, he’s just responding to what the American publicfeels. The frustration he expresses, the grievances he responded to in hiscampaign are very often real."

“特朗普并不孤立”,一名歐洲外交官這樣表示,并補充道:“他在競選活動與總統任期內,都只是在回應美國公眾的感受,其所表達的沮喪,以及在競選中表達的不滿,往往都是實實在在的”

That hasn’t stopped a few countries from sending signalsthat they’drather wait and see what happens.

但這并不能阻止一些國家發出的信號,他們寧愿等著,看看接下來會發生什么。

China, for one, appears unlikely to strike atrade deal with the U.S. until after the 2020 election. Beijinghas been increasingly reluctant to make concessions as Trump has slapped asteady stream of tariffs on the country’s exports.

比如,在2020年大選之前,中國似乎不太可能與美國達成貿易協定,隨著特朗普對中國產品加征關稅,中國方面更加不愿意做出讓步了。

Iran’s Islamist regime, meanwhile, appearsunwilling to hold new nuclear negotiations with Trump, despitethe president’s repeated imposition of sanctions that have battered thecountry's economy. -Politico

同時,伊朗伊斯蘭政權似乎也不愿意與特朗普舉行新的核談判,盡管特朗普一再對伊朗施加制裁,打擊了伊朗經濟。



Still, Trump touts his friendship with Kim, whom he says has sent him many“beautiful” letters, and has downplayed Kim’s recentshort-range missile tests. Trump has also scaled back U.S.-South Korean jointmilitary exercises, a gift to Kim.

不過,特朗普大吹特吹其與金正恩的友誼,說金正日給他寄了許多“漂亮”的信件,同時卻貶低了朝鮮最近的短程導彈試驗,并且還縮減了對金正恩的禮物 -- 即舉行美韓聯合軍事演習。

The North Korean ruler may not get suchgenerous treatment from a Democratic president eager to distinguish himself orherself from Trump. -Politico

這位朝鮮領導人大概是無法得到民主黨總統如此慷慨的待遇的,因為民主黨總統渴望與特朗普劃清界限。

Brookings Institution foreign policy analyst Tom Wright notesthat aside from preparing psychologically for another Trump win, governments haven't taken concrete steps towards foreign policydirections ahead of 2020, a sign that they're still holding out fora Democratic win.

布魯金斯學會外交政策分析師Tom Wrigh指出,除了在心理上為特朗普連任做準備外,對于外交政策的發展方向,各國政府尚未采取具體措施,這意味著他們還在堅持等待著民主黨的勝利。

If Trump does winas now expected among Diplomatic ranks, allies such as France and German willhave to give some serious consideration to their military and economicpartnerships with the United States, and that if Trump wins, "futureDemocratic candidates will be more nationalistic," according toWright.

如果正與外交隊伍所預期的那樣 -- 特朗普獲勝,法國和德國等盟國將不得不認真考慮一下他們與美國的軍事經濟伙伴關系了,如果特朗普獲勝,“未來的民主黨候選人將更為民族主義”

"It’s not Trump, it’s much wider than him," a seniorEU diplomat told Politico."It’s not anymore that we are the two allies fighting together againstthreats like terrorism. The way they look at us now is mainly as a marketto conquer against Chinese interests. It has become a bilateral strugglebetween them and the Chinese for who conquers Europe or Africa."

“屆時就不止是特朗普了,影響范圍將會大得多”,一位歐盟高級外交官稱,“我們不再是共同對付恐怖主義威脅的盟國了,他們現在主要是將歐盟看成一個有待征服的市場,以此來平衡中國的利益,已然演變成中美的雙邊斗爭了,到底這哥倆誰才能征服歐洲與非洲呢”

"What I’m saying right now is, I think, shared by manypeople," said a Middle Eastern diplomat of the 2020 election, adding"It’s his to lose."

對于2020選舉,一名中東外交管這透露道:“我想說的是,我覺得很多人都有同感”,其補充道:“特朗普會輸”